RefundHalt Research · July 2026
App refund exposure report: a transparent 2026 revenue model
How much purchase value sits behind time-limited refund evidence requests? This report provides a reproducible model with no invented customer outcomes and no hidden assumptions.
インタラクティブモデル
対象案件に関わる購入額を試算
これは損失リスクを把握するための簡易モデルで、収益保全を保証するものではありません。平均購入額に、1 か月あたりの証拠提出対象リクエスト数を掛けて算出します。
推定月間リスク額
$749.50
$14.99 × 50 件
実際の返金、対象条件、証拠、判断、保全収益は異なります。
Key finding
Exposure grows linearly with eligible case volume
For an app with a $14.99 average purchase, each eligible case represents $14.99 of purchase value under review. Ten cases represent $149.90, 50 represent $749.50, and 100 represent $1,499.00. These values describe exposure, not guaranteed retained revenue.
| Eligible cases per month | Average purchase | Modeled exposure |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | $14.99 | $149.90 |
| 50 | $14.99 | $749.50 |
| 100 | $14.99 | $1,499.00 |
Methodology
The model uses one equation: monthly purchase-value exposure equals eligible cases received in the month multiplied by average purchase value.
- An eligible Apple case is a CONSUMPTION_REQUEST that asks the developer for consumption information.
- An eligible Google case is a chargeback for which Google sends a PendingRefundReviewNotification.
- The default $14.99 input is illustrative and matches RefundHalt’s monthly software price. Replace it with your own average purchase value.
- The model does not estimate approval rate, decline rate, chargeback fees, taxes, store fees, or downstream lifetime value.
How to interpret the model
The useful comparison is not modeled exposure versus guaranteed savings. The useful comparison is the cost of consistently answering eligible requests versus the value of even one purchase that might otherwise lack developer evidence. At a $14.99 purchase value, one such purchase equals RefundHalt’s $14.99 monthly plan price, but the store may still grant the refund.
Track your own received requests, response timeliness, store outcomes, and purchase values. Replace the model with observed cohort data as your ledger grows. RefundHalt records Apple and Google outcomes in one place so that analysis is possible without blending modeled and real results.
Primary sources and limitations
Store documentation establishes the response windows and eligible workflows. The scenarios and calculations are RefundHalt’s original model. Last verified July 17, 2026.